2015 Pig Spleen Weather Prediction

Forecasts and Accuracy

Gus stated “Environment Canada has thousands of dollars worth of weather instruments and all I have is a $2.00 pig spleen.  I can compete with them and better their accuracy.”
Gus claimed 80-90% accuracy.

Jeff’s (and Gus‘) spleens are obtained from southwest Saskatchewan for prediction purposes.  The forecast is recommended for a 200 mile radius from where the pig was grown.

The forecast for the first six months of 2015 is based on five spleens from the Ear View Hutterite Colony south of Gull Lake, Saskatchewan. The 2015 winter looks like it will be milder than last year. The temperatures will tend to be above normal to normal for most months and there will be light persistent snow rather than the big snow events that we have seen in the last few years. In general we will be on the edge of most weather systems rather than in them. One spleen from eastern Canada showed a significant departure from this trend, meaning that winter in the east will be much colder than what we will experience on the prairies. Again, the winter in Southwestern Saskatchewan will be much warmer that the rest of the province and will see days with above zero temperatures in the coldest months of the year. Fog days will be frequent. While these conditions should not cause a big spring melt in the Southwest, the rest of the province will have rainfall on top of a frozen, icy soil surface causing a lot of runoff on rain days. The spring will be wet with a few early rainfalls that will result in good soil moisture and good spring seeding conditions. May will be cool and wet, and a cool spring will persist for most of the month in general. The first half of June will be generally wet. However, the last half will be mostly dry so crops will look very good going into the summer.

The first part of January will be warmer than normal with temperatures between 0 and -10. However, the weather will soon turn cold in the first week with temperatures between -20 and -30 for about a week. There will be light intermittent snow that will accumulate on Jan 1-2, and Jan 6. After the cold, mid-month will be warmer than normal for at least a week. There will be some snow on the 9 and 14. The end of the month will see a return to cold, with a few days of -20 to -30, but the cold will quickly dissipate and the end of the month will have temperatures that are normal to above normal. There will be snow on the 20th and Jan 27th.

The spleen shows a mild start to February, and snow may disappear. Eastern Canada will see a much more severe winter so the groundhog will see his shadow, meaning there will be six more weeks of winter. In the west, this is also true. However, the winter will not be severe. It will get colder between the 7th and 15th but return to warmer temperatures by mid-month, leading into a good Family Day on February 16th. There will be snow accompanying this colder period. Around the 15th there will be a bad day but it will not persist. The last part of the month will be normal to above normal but again will flip flop towards the end of the month with intermittent snow.

March does not show anything out of the ordinary, with temperatures normal to above normal for the first part of the month. There will be more constant but light snow up until the 10th, with most falling on March 2nd or 3rd. This could be rain. The temperatures will dip mid-month, and there will be a colder than average period. March 13th will be a significant day for weather. There will be no significant snow for the remainder of the month. The end of the month will be warm going into April.

The first week in April will be warm with precipitation over on April 2nd to 4th including Good Friday and more over Easter starting around the 8th and lasting off and on for about 10 days, and again on April 20th. This will mark the start of a rainier period that will persist. April 27th is a significant day in general but difficult to predict the particular event - weather or other. The end of the month will be cooler than normal until April 30th when it will start to warm up again.

The first week in May will be wet with rain and fog and the temperatures all month will be below normal, and progressively getting cooler. The dampness and cold will progress all month long with events starting around after Victoria Day on May 21 and a significant rainfall event on March 27th and lasting a few days until the end of the month, and into June. The end of the month will also see a cold spell lasting two or three days.

There will be a significant warming trend starting at the beginning of the month and lasting all month. There will be intermittent rain at the beginning of the month, ending between June 10th and 15th. After this, the rest of the month will be warm and relatively dry.

2015 Interviews

  • CTV Morning Live
    Jeff shares the art of pig spleen weather prognostication with Kahla Buchanan, Weather Specialist with CTV News and Anchor of CTV Morning Live.
  • Saskatchewan Weekend
    Jeff joins Dan Reynish on CBC Radio's Saskatchewan Weekend to discuss the rest of Winter 2015.
  • Pig Spleen Men
    Craig Baird posted a video on You Tube which combines footage of the 2015 prognostication with archived interviews with Gus.