Forecasts and Accuracy

Gus stated “Environment Canada has thousands of dollars worth of weather instruments and all I have is a $2.00 pig spleen.  I can compete with them and better their accuracy.”
Gus claimed 80-90% accuracy.

Jeff’s (and Gus‘) spleens are obtained from southwest Saskatchewan for prediction purposes.  The forecast is recommended for a 200 mile radius from where the pig was grown. 


This prediction is for the area centered around Tompkins, Sk. for a radius of 200 miles. It is based on several spleens from the Tompkins/Gull Lake area. The winter and spring of 2011 will be characterized by above average precipitation.  This coupled with the good moisture that remains from last year will result in ideal seeding and growing conditions at the start of the crop season. Temperatures will be average tending towards below average in the spring.  June will be similar to last year in that there will be lots of rain until mid month however there will not be as much as was seen in 2010. Conditions for seeding will be ideal this year and growing conditions through the end of June will be near perfect.

Jan 5 to 15 will be cold with higher than average snow and blowing snow that will dominate the month.  The temperatures will be slightly below average for the period but more snow than normal. The temperatures after Jan 15 will be average to above average. The full moon on Jan 19 brings a return to colder weather and Jan 25 will see significant snow.
Lots of snow in general during the month of February, with snowfall peaking on the 20th.
The snow will start with a major fall on the 10th and 17th and intermittent between these dates.  The last snowfall of the month will be between the 25-27. Temperatures for the month will start off cold and below normal. Valentines day will be mild with temperature gradually cooling to normal towards the end of the month.
March will be relatively precipitation free with the exception of one snowfall between the 12 and 15. Although there will be not much snowfall in the month, the moisture will be sustained with abnormally high humidities resulting in little loss of soil moisture. The end of March will see some mild showers or freezing rain.  Winter temperatures will end abruptly around St. Patricks day and the end of the month will be mild but very windy.
April will characterized as moist.  Rains early in the month with a significant rainfall on the 12-15 will provide good soil moisture. Take the opportunity to seed early. Scattered showers on the 20th thru to the end of the month. Easter weekend will be mild but windy and runoff will be winding down to complete at this time. Easter Sunday will be sunny warm and mild however preceding and following this day will be cool, cloudy and damp.
Intermittent showers into May and conditions will be moist with significant rainfalls on May 11th and May 30. Temperatures will be mild and above normal for the period.  From May 20 to June 20, it will be solidly wet.
There will be a high intensity rainstorm between June 5 and 10 that will provide a good soaking, that will last a couple of days.  There will be good rain until June 22 when rains will stop for the month.  Although June will be wet, it will not be as wet as last year and  there will not be any significant flooding. This will not be the case for the rest of the province.
Jeff Woodward, PSP.

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